This was a first for me:  A video interview on the Forex Live Analysis Room with Dale Pinkert. We discussed my views on the dollar, franc, crude, gold and many more. I enjoyed very much talking with Dale and hope we’ll be doing it again.

 

The cad looks bound to underperform

The Canadian economy looks bound to under-perform in the next quarters. Technically, the picture also looks grim for the usd/cad pair where a reverse H&S pattern has developed on the weekly chart.  There isn’t much left in terms of good supply levels if the pair breaks 1.06 .  A bout of risk aversion could help send it much higher in a classic up-the-elevator move too.

Sept 18 addendum: The right shoulder didn’t hold so this setup is on the back-burner until further notice. A new deeper right shoulder could be in the making.

October 8 addendum: The pattern is morphing with the drawing of a potential new right shoulder.  Watching a break of the neckline at 1.05 for confirmation.

Capture

AUD/CAD to revisit parity?

The aud/cad pair has met its double top target on the weekly chart and found some aggressive buyers at a good weekly demand level.

The latest China flash HSBC PMI was surprisingly positive which leads me to believe that a rebalancing of the growth expectations between the US and China has started in favour of the latter. The aud/cad pair is a good non-dollar correlated way of playing this scenario.

There is no clear reversal pattern on the smaller time frames yet (perhaps a reversed H&S on daily) so I will be keeping an eye out for a confirmation set-up.

Sept 2nd addendum:

I am playing this tentative reversal pattern on daily

Capture

October 8 addendum:

A larger reverse H&S has developed on daily.  If valid, parity will be revisited.

Capture

October 22 addendum: Parity. Final target met.

Play-on-quote du jour

13 May 2013

Play-on-quote du jour

L’État, c’est moi! – Louis XIV

Le Dow, c’est moi! – Bernanke

A high-reward potential scenario for the next hours/days.

May 13th Addendum: This pattern has failed

Play-on-quote du jour

8 June 2011

 

L’amour physique est sans issue. – Serge Gainsbourg

L’amour cybernétique l’est encore plus. – Anthony Weiner

CAD: Know thy levels…

7 November 2010

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