5 September 2013
The Canadian economy looks bound to under-perform in the next quarters. Technically, the picture also looks grim for the usd/cad pair where a reverse H&S pattern has developed on the weekly chart. There isn’t much left in terms of good supply levels if the pair breaks 1.06 . A bout of risk aversion could help send it much higher in a classic up-the-elevator move too.
Sept 18 addendum: The right shoulder didn’t hold so this setup is on the back-burner until further notice. A new deeper right shoulder could be in the making.
October 8 addendum: The pattern is morphing with the drawing of a potential new right shoulder. Watching a break of the neckline at 1.05 for confirmation.
22 August 2013
The aud/cad pair has met its double top target on the weekly chart and found some aggressive buyers at a good weekly demand level.
The latest China flash HSBC PMI was surprisingly positive which leads me to believe that a rebalancing of the growth expectations between the US and China has started in favour of the latter. The aud/cad pair is a good non-dollar correlated way of playing this scenario.
There is no clear reversal pattern on the smaller time frames yet (perhaps a reversed H&S on daily) so I will be keeping an eye out for a confirmation set-up.
Sept 2nd addendum:
I am playing this tentative reversal pattern on daily
October 8 addendum:
A larger reverse H&S has developed on daily. If valid, parity will be revisited.
October 22 addendum: Parity. Final target met.
13 May 2013
L’État, c’est moi! – Louis XIV
Le Dow, c’est moi! – Bernanke
24 April 2013
A high-reward potential scenario for the next hours/days.
May 13th Addendum: This pattern has failed
8 June 2011
6 February 2010
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
— Mike Tyson
“Everybody has a plan, that’s why I don’t make any.”
— The Market